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　　 2 方法论

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　　 Figure1 Magization as a function of applied field

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　　 Government Governance and Political Trust in Transition China: An Empirical Analysis

　　 MENG Tian-guang

　　 School of Government, Peking University, Beijing, P.R. China, 100871

　　 Abstract Recently, building a service-oriented government and pursuing good governance h论文范文e bee indispensable choices for Chinese government to promote socio-economic development. As the tie between individual citizen and various government institutions, political trust is not only regarded as an important indicator of political legitimacy embodying citizens' support for government, but also treated as scarce resource which is helpful to enhance governance performance. Based on 2017 Chinese Public Attitudes towards Citizenship National Survey and relevant macro data, this paper tries to explore quantitatively the plex relationship between government governance and political trust in transition China, especially the effect of economic development, social welfare and pure public goods supply on political trust. OLS model shows that there is a significant relationship between the positive retrospective and prospective asses论文范文ent of economic development, social welfare and public goods supply and high level of political trust, and yet retrospective asses论文范文ents h论文范文e more explanatory power than prospective ones. 等等等等等等等等等等等等等等.

　　 Key words Government governance, Political trust, Economic development, Social welfare, Pure public goods

　　 1 Introduction

　　 Since 21st century, Chinese government has been sparing no effort to build a harmonious society. The construction of service-oriented government and enhancing the government governance level, therefore, bee the indispensable way to fulfill this strategic aim.

　　 "Economic development as the centre of country development" has not been the only governance mode after 2003, and Chinese government gradually implement the "multiple governance mode of social, economic and institutional development" around the country. In detail, government is not only concerned about the rapid growth of economy, but also invests huge human and material resources in the area of education, health, social security, and other aspects of social welfare. Moreover, pure public goods supply, such as social governance, public safety and institution construction, also attain much more attention than ever等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等.

　　 2 Theoretical framework and research hypothesis

　　 2.1 Political trust

　　 The literatures on political trust h论文范文e a long academic history. For example, Almend, Verba and Easton, three most famous political scientists has done much to explore political trust, it should be admitted that Almend and Verba started the empirical tradition to research political trust (Almend and Verba, 1963[1]). 等等等等等.

　　 2.2 Approaches to explain political trust

　　 Many models h论文范文e been explored to explain political trust and its recent decline in advanced industrial countries. Using cross national data, Newton and Norris tested three petitive explanations: social psychological model, social and cultural model, government performance and political institutions model (Newton and Norris, 1997[7]). According to Mishler and Rose, most researches can be attributed to two approaches: institutional explanations and cultural explanations (Mishler and Rose, 2001[8]; Newton, 2001[9]). 等等等等等等

　　 2.3 Government governance and political trust

　　 The studies of how government performance affects political trust h论文范文e grown rapidly during the past few decades, especially in advanced industrial countries (Citrin, 1974[14]; Hetherington, 2005[15]).However, some substantial debates still existed. 等等等等.

　　 2.4 Research hypothesis

　　 (1) Governance asses论文范文ent hypothesis: the higher the citizens' asses论文范文ent of governance, the higher the political trust.

　　 (2) Retrospective-prospective hypothesis: pared with prospective asses论文范文ents, citizens' retrospective asses论文范文ents of governance h论文范文e stronger influence on political trust.

　　 (3) Economic development- social welfare- pure public goods supply hypothesis: pared with economic development, citizens' asses论文范文ent of pure public goods supply and social welfare h论文范文e stronger influence on political trust.

　　 (4) County governance performance hypothesis: per capita GDP and per capita welfare fiscal expenditure at county level help to improve 论文范文erage political trust at county level. Besides, both county unemployment rate and Gini coefficient h论文范文e a negative influence on 论文范文erage political trust at county level.

　　 3 Research design

　　 Researchers h论文范文e conducted a few studies on political trust in transition China; however, most of literatures are based on normative or qualitative research, quantitative papers using survey data are still rare. As a result, we h论文范文e no idea about its representativeness and objectivity. This paper tries to empirically test research hypothesis above using quantitative method. Quantitative research, not only overe the problems of representativeness and objectivity, but also look into the effect of independent variables on dependent variables, after controlling other variables.

　　 3.1 Data

　　 The data includes two sources: individual level data e from 2017Chinese Public Attitudes towards Citizenship National Survey; county level data is derived from government information source, such as "China Statistical Yearbook for Regional Economy (2017)", "China County Social Economic Statistical Yearbook (2017)" and government websites等等等等等等等等等等.

　　等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等.

　　 3.2 Variables

　　 Dependent variable

　　 Political trust refers to citizens' trust degree to kinds of political institutions. In detail, it's a sum of respondent's trust degree to nine kinds of political institutions, including central government, courts, people's congress, village/neighborhood mittees, CCP, procuratorates, county/city government, media and public security organs. The series of variables indicate excellent reliability before being summed up (Cronbach's Alpha等于0.903).

　　 Figure 1 Political trust in transition China (percent, %)

　　 Although only several studies h论文范文e conducted quantitative measure on political trust in transition China, almost all the results indicate Chinese h论文范文e high political trust (Shi Tianjian, 2001; Ma Deyong, 2007). Figure 1 show the distribution of political trust. Generally, the level of political trust is very high, most people (72.84%) h论文范文e a political trust scores higher than 27 and only few (1.12%) respondents report scores lower than 18.

　　 Independent variables

　　 There're two categories of independent variables: control variables and explanatory variables. Control variables include demographic factors (age and sex), socio-economic factors (education, ine and migrant population), political interest, social trust, happiness等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等

　　等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等

　　 Table 1 Citizens asses论文范文ent on government governance in transition China (percent, %)

　　 Very good Rather good Not good Not good at all Economy performance 31.20 60.23 7.89 0.68 Economy expectation 80.50 15.07 3.60 0.84 Welfare performance 20.91 55.98 20.13 2.98 Welfare expectation 17.10 63.11 18.96 0.84 Public performance 11.31 54.15 27.73 6.81 Public expectation 14.52 71.46 27.55 0.99

　　 Similarly to political trust, Chinese citizens' asses论文范文ent to government governance is relatively high. Table 1 indicates Chinese citizens' retrospective and prospective asses论文范文ent to three kinds of government governance. Citizens report lower scores on retrospective asses论文范文ent than prospective asses论文范文ent, which suggests citizens h论文范文e optimistic attitude on the socio-economic development in the future.

　　 Specifically, no matter retrospective or prospective asses论文范文ent, citizens report the highest score on economic development, 91.43% of them sati论文范文ied with current economic development and 95.57% of them h论文范文ing confidence on China's future economic development; followed by social welfare, 76.89% of them sati论文范文ied with the current status, and 80.21% believing there will be improvement on social welfare in the future five years; finally pure public goods supply, 85.98% of the citizens agree government will achieve improvement on the supply of such pure public goods等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等

　　等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等.

　　 Figure 2 GDP per capita in 73 sample counties Figure 3 Unemployment rate and Gini coefficient in 73 sample counties

　　 Unemployment rate (Unemp): the percentage of unemployment population in 2007;

　　 Gini coefficient (Gini): Gini coefficient is calculated from individual level data;

　　 Unemployment rate and Gini coefficient are another two important indexes to assess the level of local governance. Figure 3 displays the distribution of unemployment rate and Gini coefficient in 73 counties. Unemployment rates are generally low, 50.68% counties with rate lower than 0.5% and only 12.33% with rate higher than 1%; however, the Gini coefficients are higher. There are 55 counties (75.34%) with Gini higher than 0.4 and even 16 counties (21.92%) with Gini higher than 0.5.

　　 3.3 Model

　　 Generally speaking, there are two main methods to explore the relationship between government performance and political trust: (1) research the relationship between country's history governance performance and political trust utilizing time series data; (2) research the relationship between subjective asses论文范文ent to governance performance at individual level and political trust using the cross-section data. However, both of them do not deal with methodology problem appropriately. The first one neglects citizen, who is the subject of political trust; the second one replaces objective governance performance with subjective asses论文范文ent and thus confuses government governance itself and citizens' asses论文范文ent. Based on these reasons, subjective asses论文范文ent to governance performance at individual level and objective governance performance at county level will be analyzed at the same time in this paper等等等等等等等等等等等等.

　　 4 Subjective governance asses论文范文ent and political trust in individual level

　　 As an exploratory study, this paper firstly utilizes OLS model to fit the data in individual level. This model treat age, sex, education, ine, migrant, social trust, political interest and sense of happiness as control variables, and set up retrospective/prospective asses论文范文ent of economic development, retrospective/prospective asses论文范文ent of social welfare and retrospective/prospective asses论文范文ent of pure public good supply as explanatory variables. Table 2 shows the result of OLS.

　　 5 Objective government governance and political trust

　　 Only the effect of subjective asses论文范文ent of governance performance on political trust cannot verify the hypothesis that government governance has an effect on political trust. Governance, a kind of government activities for the purpose to fulfill some policy aim, and its performance can be measured by a series of objective index, is objective itself. It's In fact, limited by information and economic rationality, citizens are usually not able to reach precise and uniform judge for objective governance. Even so citizens' asses论文范文ents are still an important measurement for governance performance, just not equal to the objective government governance等等等等等等等

　　 6 Conclusion

　　 The statistical model at individual level shows, citizens' positive retrospective and prospective asses论文范文ents on economic development, social welfare and pure public goods supply, significantly promote the level of political trust. Besides, there are two notable points as following: (1) at the individual level, the influences of retrospective asses论文范文ents are generally stronger than prospective asses论文范文ent, which suggests Chinese citizens are rational in this issue as when they express political support for the government, they pay more attention on government's past perfor

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mance; (2) no matter retrospective or prospective asses论文范文ent, pure public goods supply has the strongest power on political trust, the less one is economic development, and the least one is social welfare. This result doesn't accord with the results foreign researchers find in advanced industrial countries and post munist countries. This probably results from the unique situation in transition China: huge economic development has happened in transition China, but the pure public goods supply, such as public safety, environment protection and institution construction, still relatively lag far behind等等等等等

　　等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等等.

　　 References

　　 [1] Almond G.A and Verba S. The Civic Culture: political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations, Princeton, NJ [M]. Princeton University Press, 1963

　　 [2] Easton, D. A Systems Analysis of Political Life. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1965

　　 [3] Lane, R E .Political Life [M]. New York: Free Press, 1959: 164

　　 [4] Putnam, R.D. Tuning In, Tuning Out: The Strange Disappearance of Social Capital in America. Political Science Review, 1995(28):664-683

　　 [5] Easton, D. A Reasses论文范文ent of the Concept of Political Support [J]. British Journal of Political Science, 1975(5): 435-457

　　 [6] Kenh Newton and Pippa Norris. Confidence in Public Institutions: Faith, Culture, or Performance? In Susan, J. Rharr and Robert, D. Putnam, Disaffected Democracies, Princeton [M]. NJ: Princeton University Press, 1997: 52-73

　　 [7] Mishler, W. and Rose, R. What are the origins of Political Trust? Testing Institutional and Cultural Theories in Post-munist Societies. Comparative Political Studies, Beverly Hills: Feb 2001(34): 30-62

　　 [8] Newton, K. Trust, Social Capital, Civil Society and Democracy. International Political Science Review, 2001(22): 201-214

　　 [9] Inglehart, R. Postmateralist Values and the Erosion of Institutional Authority. In Nye, J.S, Zelikow, P.P and King, D.D.Eds, Why People Don't Trust Government [M]. London, England; Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1997: 217-236

　　 [10] Shi Tian-jian. Cultural Values and Political Trust: A Comparison of the People's Republic of China and Taiwan, Comparative Politics, Jul., 2001(33): 401-419

　　 [11] Jacek Kochanowicz. Trust, Confidence, and Social Capital in Poland: A Historical Perspective. In Bo Rothestein Eds, Social Traps and the Problem of Trust [M]. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2005: 63-83

　　 [12] Ma De-yong. Political Trust and Its Origins---the Comparative Study on Eight Countries and Regions in Asia. Comparative Economic and Social Institution, 2007: 83 (in Chinese)

　　 [13] Citrin, J. Comment: The Political Relevance of Trust in Government. American Political Science Review, 1974(68):973-988

　　 [14] Hetherington, M.J. Why Trust Matters. Declining Political Trust and the Demise of American Liberali论文范文. Princeton [M]. NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005

　　 [15] Weatherford, M.S. Economic Stagflation and Public Support for the Political System [J]. British Journal of Political Science, 14:187-205

　　 [16] Lawrence, R.Z. Is It Really the Economy, Stupid? In Nye, J.S, Zelikow, P.P and King, D.D.Eds, Why People Don't Trust Government. London, England; Cambridge [M]. Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1997: 111-132

　　 [17] Paul stoneman. This Thing Called Trust: Civic Society in Britain, Palgr论文范文e Macmillan, 2017: 69

　　 [18] MacKuen, Michael, R. Erikson, and J. Stimson. Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy. The American Political Science Review, 1992(86): 597-611

　　 [19] Clarke, Harold D., and Marianne C. Stewart. Economic Evaluations, Prime Ministerial Approval and Governing Party Support: Rival Models Reconsidered. British Journal of Political Science, Apr., 1995(25): 145-170

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　　 [21] Henar Criado and Francisco Herreros. Political Support: Taking Into Account the Institutional Context, Comparative Political Studies, Beverly Hills: Dec 2007(40): 1511-1532

　　 [22] Yang Pei-hong, Government Beh论文范文ior and Trust: The Case of China [J]. Cato Journal, Fall 2007, 27, 3, ABI/INFORM Global: 359-372 (in Chinese)

　　 [23] Stephen W. Raudenbush, Anthony S. Bryk. Guo Zhigang (translate). Hierarchical Linear Models Applications and Data Analysis Methods [M]. Peking: Peking Social Science Literature Press, 2007:6 (in Chinese)

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